Scoring Analysis

Final

2021-06-1401:10Citi Field

Padres

Away

7-3

Mets

Home

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Padres	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	7	9	1
Mets	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3	8	0

H/A

Data range

Ranked from both teams’ inning offense and defense. Each team value combines its scoring rate with the opponent’s allowing rate; the league gap sums both sides. This is historical context, not a prediction.

Scoring hotspots

Inn.6

Padres scoring tendency

30%

Own scoring 35%

Opponent allowing 25%

Mets scoring tendency

38%

Own scoring 40%

Opponent allowing 35%

Sustained highCombined vs league +11pp

Inn.7

Padres scoring tendency

30%

Own scoring 25%

Opponent allowing 35%

Mets scoring tendency

34%

Own scoring 28%

Opponent allowing 40%

Heating upCombined vs league +12pp

Inn.9

Padres scoring tendency

30%

Own scoring 31%

Opponent allowing 29%

Mets scoring tendency

26%

Own scoring 36%

Opponent allowing 15%

Heating upCombined vs league +7pp

Innings 1–9 scoring tendencies

Each cell combines both teams’ tendencies; select an inning to see the split

Padres offense × Mets defense

30%R 35% · RA 25%

Mets offense × Padres defense

38%R 40% · RA 35%

Sample 20Combined vs league +11pp

Last 20 68% · Season 64% · +4pp

Game phases

1–3 Early

36%

-18pp

4–6 Middle

56%

+2pp

7–9 Late

57%

+5pp

F5 first five

42%

-12pp

F9 full game

50%

-4pp

Show team trends+

Padres — Inning Runs / Runs Allowed

66 games

Avg Runs Trend

Runs 290Runs Allowed 227

Mets — Inning Runs / Runs Allowed

57 games

Avg Runs Trend

Runs 222Runs Allowed 200

Show raw detail and samples+

Each team is ranked separately: #1–#3 mark the top three scoring rates and allowing rates.

Team	Item	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+
Padres	R	24% 16/66	#329% 19/66	23% 15/66	23% 15/66	21% 14/66	#141% 27/66	#230% 20/66	26% 17/65	27% 12/44	57% 8/14
Padres	RA	17% 11/66	23% 15/66	#324% 16/66	21% 14/66	#132% 21/66	#229% 19/66	20% 13/66	23% 15/65	16% 8/51	43% 6/14
Mets	R	23% 13/57	12% 7/57	28% 16/57	28% 16/57	26% 15/57	28% 16/57	#330% 16/54	#230% 15/50	#131% 12/39	50% 3/6
Mets	RA	18% 10/57	#326% 15/57	16% 9/57	19% 11/57	25% 14/57	#130% 17/57	20% 11/55	#228% 14/50	22% 8/37	50% 3/6

Scoring rate is the share of actual offensive innings with at least one run. Unplayed half-innings are excluded; extras do not enter the top-three ranking.