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Final
2021-06-0410:10Petco Park
Mets
Away
3-4
Padres
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Scoring Analysis

H/A
Data range
Ranked from both teams’ inning offense and defense. Each team value combines its scoring rate with the opponent’s allowing rate; the league gap sums both sides. This is historical context, not a prediction.

Scoring hotspots

Ranked from both teams’ inning offense and defense. Each team value combines its scoring rate with the opponent’s allowing rate; the league gap sums both sides. This is historical context, not a prediction.

#1
Inn.8
Mets scoring tendency
24%
Own scoring 33%
Opponent allowing 15%
Padres scoring tendency
42%
Own scoring 35%
Opponent allowing 50%
Heating upCombined vs league +12pp
#2
Inn.6
Mets scoring tendency
28%
Own scoring 35%
Opponent allowing 20%
Padres scoring tendency
38%
Own scoring 50%
Opponent allowing 25%
Sustained highCombined vs league +9pp
#3
Inn.7
Mets scoring tendency
29%
Own scoring 33%
Opponent allowing 25%
Padres scoring tendency
30%
Own scoring 30%
Opponent allowing 30%
Heating upCombined vs league +7pp

Innings 1–9 scoring tendencies

Each cell combines both teams’ tendencies; select an inning to see the split

Mets offense × Padres defense
24%R 33% · RA 15%
Padres offense × Mets defense
42%R 35% · RA 50%
Sample 18Combined vs league +12pp
Last 20 67% · Season 53% · +14pp

Game phases

1–3 Early
40%
-14pp
4–6 Middle
53%
-0pp
7–9 Late
59%
+7pp
F5 first five
43%
-10pp
F9 full game
51%
-2pp
Show team trends+

Mets — Inning Runs / Runs Allowed

49 games
081624332017114242211332221421265212562510720258161295510+ScoredAllowed
Avg Runs Trend
0.00.30.50.81.012345678910+Avg. ScoredAvg. Allowed
Runs 185Runs Allowed 178

Padres — Inning Runs / Runs Allowed

57 games
01531476327171282621926319144283455028631157291582189161010+ScoredAllowed
Avg Runs Trend
0.00.40.71.11.412345678910+Avg. ScoredAvg. Allowed
Runs 268Runs Allowed 193
Show raw detail and samples+

Each team is ranked separately: #1–#3 mark the top three scoring rates and allowing rates.

TeamItem12345678910+
MetsR20% 10/4914% 7/49#329% 14/49#231% 15/4924% 12/4924% 12/49#133% 15/4626% 11/4227% 9/3350% 3/6
RA16% 8/49#329% 14/4914% 7/4918% 9/4924% 12/49#231% 15/4917% 8/47#131% 13/4222% 7/3250% 3/6
PadresR25% 14/57#232% 18/5721% 12/5725% 14/5723% 13/57#144% 25/57#330% 17/5729% 16/5626% 10/3857% 8/14
RA18% 10/57#226% 15/57#326% 15/5718% 10/57#133% 19/5725% 14/5716% 9/5720% 11/5616% 7/4443% 6/14

Scoring rate is the share of actual offensive innings with at least one run. Unplayed half-innings are excluded; extras do not enter the top-three ranking.