Scoring Analysis

Final

2021-05-2007:40Wrigley Field

Nationals

Away

4-3

Cubs

Home

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Nationals	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	4	9	0
Cubs	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	8	0

H/A

Data range

Ranked from both teams’ inning offense and defense. Each team value combines its scoring rate with the opponent’s allowing rate; the league gap sums both sides. This is historical context, not a prediction.

Scoring hotspots

Inn.3

Nationals scoring tendency

28%

Own scoring 30%

Opponent allowing 25%

Cubs scoring tendency

45%

Own scoring 55%

Opponent allowing 35%

Sustained highCombined vs league +18pp

Inn.6

Nationals scoring tendency

32%

Own scoring 25%

Opponent allowing 40%

Cubs scoring tendency

38%

Own scoring 35%

Opponent allowing 40%

Sustained highCombined vs league +15pp

Inn.1

Nationals scoring tendency

28%

Own scoring 25%

Opponent allowing 30%

Cubs scoring tendency

35%

Own scoring 40%

Opponent allowing 30%

Sustained highCombined vs league +8pp

Innings 1–9 scoring tendencies

Each cell combines both teams’ tendencies; select an inning to see the split

Nationals offense × Cubs defense

28%R 30% · RA 25%

Cubs offense × Nationals defense

45%R 55% · RA 35%

Sample 20Combined vs league +18pp

Last 20 73% · Season 63% · +9pp

Game phases

1–3 Early

57%

+4pp

4–6 Middle

62%

+9pp

7–9 Late

47%

-5pp

F5 first five

57%

+5pp

F9 full game

55%

+3pp

Show team trends+

Nationals — Inning Runs / Runs Allowed

38 games

Avg Runs Trend

Runs 148Runs Allowed 164

Cubs — Inning Runs / Runs Allowed

41 games

Avg Runs Trend

Runs 190Runs Allowed 185

Show raw detail and samples+

Each team is ranked separately: #1–#3 mark the top three scoring rates and allowing rates.

Team	Item	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+
Nationals	R	26% 10/38	24% 9/38	#229% 11/38	21% 8/38	13% 5/38	#329% 11/38	24% 9/38	#131% 11/36	23% 7/30	50% 2/4
Nationals	RA	#229% 11/38	24% 9/38	#132% 12/38	24% 9/38	26% 10/38	#329% 11/38	29% 11/38	25% 9/36	27% 7/26	100% 4/4
Cubs	R	#237% 15/41	29% 12/41	#144% 18/41	27% 11/41	27% 11/41	32% 13/41	20% 8/40	#332% 13/40	17% 5/29	71% 5/7
Cubs	RA	#332% 13/41	12% 5/41	22% 9/41	#234% 14/41	24% 10/41	#137% 15/41	29% 12/41	10% 4/40	10% 3/31	86% 6/7

Scoring rate is the share of actual offensive innings with at least one run. Unplayed half-innings are excluded; extras do not enter the top-three ranking.